By Kundai Chifamba & Prechard Mhako
The first Industrial Revolution gifted the world mechanisation through the steam engine, and the second gave us mass production through electricity. The third and fourth revolutions have been built on the foundations of the first two, particularly electricity. Automation and robotics are clearly children of the great invention called electricity, which remains inaccessible to over 600 million Africans to date.
The United States led the world through the last industrial revolution. Today, the next frontier, clean energy, is being contested by the West and increasingly by China, which now dominates nearly 60% of the global electric vehicle (EV) battery supply chain. But amid this global race lies a continent at a critical inflexion point: Africa. Often seen as a passive consumer in global energy systems, Africa must now seize the opportunity to become a producer of electric vehicles, clean energy, and industrial prosperity.
The Hidden Cost of Fuel Dependency
In 2023, Nigeria spent $18.7 billion on petroleum product imports. A relatively smaller country like Zimbabwe spends over $120 million per month on fuel imports, which amounts to more than $1.4 billion annually, or about a fifth of the country’s imports.
That’s money exiting the economy in exchange for a commodity Africa could begin to replace with local, renewable power. Multiply this scenario across the continent, and the scale becomes clear: Africa collectively spends an estimated $80–100 billion annually importing fossil fuels. Meanwhile, it possesses over 60% of the world’s best solar potential and vast reserves of battery-critical minerals like lithium, cobalt, and manganese. Yet these advantages remain largely underleveraged.
Add to that the fragile nature of energy infrastructure—Africa is reportedly the continent with the fewest oil refineries—and it becomes clear that maintaining a fossil fuel-dependent transport model is both economically and strategically unsustainable. In an era of rising climate risk, currency volatility, and global supply chain fragmentation, energy sovereignty is no longer optional. It is essential.
A $90 Billion Opportunity on the Horizon
According to McKinsey, Africa’s vehicle fleet is expected to more than double by 2040, surpassing 90 million vehicles. If just 20% of these were electric by then, the continent would see demand for at least 18 million EVs, representing a market of around half a billion United States Dollars, assuming a conservative average vehicle cost of $25,000. In the shorter term, localising even 20% worth of EV-related value through assembly, battery integration, and public transit electrification over the next 10–15 years is a realistic and high-impact target that would translate into at least $100 billion in value creation.
Some of this is already underway. In Kenya, startups like Roam (formerly Opibus) are deploying electric buses and motorcycles explicitly designed for African terrain and cost constraints. In Zimbabwe, Mobility for Africa is rolling out electric scooter rentals to support rural economies. Rwanda and Uganda are rolling out e-mobility platforms for taxis and last-mile logistics. South Africa is drafting a policy to attract EV manufacturing investments. Whilst all these activities show intent, they have not yet reached critical mass to make the desired impact. Also, momentum remains fragmented, underfunded, and policy-agnostic across most of the continent.
EVs for the 99%, Not the 1%
Africa’s EV revolution will not be driven by luxury SUVs. It will be built on sub-$25,000 vehicles—affordable electric tuk-tuks, utility vans, minibuses, and hybrid sedans tailored to local use cases. These vehicles must be rugged, affordable, and adaptable, able to operate on partial grids and uneven roads while minimising maintenance costs. They will power ride-hailing services in Lagos, cargo delivery in Kigali, and school transport in Bulawayo. As proof of capacity, Africa already has a plus $40 billion used car market, which is reportedly growing at a CAGR of +8%.
The operational economics are already compelling. An electric minibus operating 150–200 kilometres daily in Nairobi can save $5,000–$7,000 annually on fuel costs alone. Over five years, that’s enough to cover the cost differential between an ICE and an EV, even before factoring in maintenance savings or lower carbon emissions.
Plug-in and standard hybrids also have a critical transitional role, especially in regions with unreliable grid access. These offer low-emission transport while reducing pressure on nascent charging infrastructure. The goal is not ideological purity—it is energy resilience.
The Trade Reset: A Strategic Opening for Africa
The global trade order is being rewritten in real time. U.S. President Donald Trump has recently proposed sweeping ‘reciprocal’ tariffs on imported goods, signalling a sharp turn toward protectionism and economic decoupling. While this introduces volatility, it also creates a strategic window for Africa. As the U.S., EU, and their allies seek to de-risk supply chains and reduce dependence on Chinese critical minerals, Africa can reposition itself as a preferred partner in the global clean energy economy, from extraction to production to trade.
This goes beyond mining. Countries that seize this moment—by formalising beneficiation policies, aligning with AfCFTA protocols, and negotiating industrial partnerships—can become embedded in the next-generation EV value chains, not merely as raw material exporters but as hubs of energy technology, mobility manufacturing, and sustainable growth.
Policy Must Lead
Governments must recognise that Africa’s electric vehicle transition cannot be left to market forces alone. It requires deliberate, coordinated policy to catalyse demand, de-risk private investment, and align industrial incentives. First, EVs and battery components should be exempt from import duties to reduce upfront costs and stimulate adoption.
Public procurement can be a powerful tool—governments should prioritise electrifying city buses, municipal fleets, and public service vehicles to create anchor demand and signal long-term commitment. Additionally, investor-friendly incentives such as tax holidays, land grants, and low-interest financing can help establish domestic EV assembly and battery recycling hubs. Policies that mandate local content or mineral beneficiation in exchange for mining licenses should support these industrial zones.
Integrating EVs into national energy plans, including standardising charging infrastructure and expanding solar mini-grids to support off-grid mobility, is just as important. Critically, all of this must be done under a unified strategy that connects energy, mining, transportation, and manufacturing into a single vision that builds resilience, creates jobs, and advances long-term energy sovereignty.
Regional coordination is equally vital. The Southern African Power Pool (SAPP), which connects the electricity grids of 12 SADC countries, presents a ready-made backbone for powering electric mobility across borders. While the region lacks adequate pipeline infrastructure—for instance, no petroleum pipeline connects Angola’s vast oil reserves to landlocked SADC countries—electricity can flow more easily across borders via the SAPP. This represents a strategic opportunity to build a shared electric future rather than doubling down on fragmented fossil infrastructure.
Moreover, in cities like Harare, which has seen, by some estimates, 30% of households adopting rooftop solar systems due to chronic grid unreliability, there is now excess daytime power generation going unused. With the right policy frameworks and bi-directional charging technologies, these homes could become decentralised charging hubs for electric buses, delivery vehicles, or neighbourhood kombi service, turning a coping mechanism into a productive energy ecosystem.
Build the Chain, Not Just the Car
Africa controls 70% of global cobalt, over 50% of manganese, and growing reserves of lithium, nickel, and rare earths—minerals at the heart of the EV battery revolution. This is not to mention Africa’s immense solar radiation capacity. But today, most are exported raw with minimal value addition. That is unfortunate, and change only requires positive action.
The next logical step is localising EV supply chains, from mineral processing to cell production to basic battery assembly. This creates jobs, builds skills, and strengthens fiscal capacity. With the right beneficiation mandates and regional cooperation, countries like Zimbabwe and the DRC could become net exporters of clean energy and clean transport.
What’s in it for the developed economies?
For Global Manufacturing, engaging Africa in the EV transition isn’t just about benevolence—it’s a strategic imperative. First, securing reliable access to critical minerals like cobalt, lithium, and rare earth elements is now a matter of national security, while ensuring some value addition is necessary. These resources power not just electric vehicles, but smartphones, defence systems, and the renewable grid.
Second, Africa represents the last primary growth market for consumer vehicles and infrastructure-scale clean energy. As Western markets saturate, demand in Africa, where over 60% of the population is under 25, will shape the future of global mobility. Deeper investment in Africa will spur an African middle class that represents an even larger untapped market for global output. EV financing, fleet leasing, payment technologies, and grid integration are all domains where opportunities are still untapped.
A new industrial dawn for Africa
Africa’s EV transition is not just about mobility. It is a pathway to fiscal resilience, industrial growth, and shared prosperity. It is a chance to leapfrog into a future that is cleaner, fairer, and more economically inclusive.
But this future will not build itself. It requires clear policy, bold investment, and integrated strategy—linking energy, transport, mining, and manufacturing into one cohesive vision. If done right, Africa will not be the last to industrialise in the clean energy era. It will be the first to do it right from the start
