La Niña May Return, But Heatwave Planet Still on Track

A cooling La Niña weather pattern may return as early as September according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) but scientists warn that global temperatures are still set to remain above average.

Neutral conditions in the Pacific neither El Niño nor La Niña have persisted since March 2025.

But new forecasts suggest a 55% chance of La Niña emerging between September and November rising to 60% for October to December.

The likelihood of El Niño developing is considered negligible.

“La Niña and El Niño forecasts are vital climate intelligence tools. They save lives and billions of dollars by helping countries prepare for impacts on agriculture, health, transport, and energy,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

La Niña typically brings large-scale cooling of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, influencing rainfall, winds and pressure systems around the world.

Its impacts often contrast sharply with El Niño, particularly in tropical regions.

However, experts caution that natural climate cycles now unfold in the wider context of human-driven global warming which is pushing temperatures to record highs, intensifying extreme weather and altering rainfall patterns.

The WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update predicts above-normal temperatures across much of the Northern Hemisphere and large parts of the Southern Hemisphere during September to November.

Rainfall patterns are expected to align with conditions usually associated with a moderate La Niña.

Alongside El Niño and La Niña, the WMO says other drivers—including the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole—will shape global weather in the months ahead.